The Globex futures are currently pointing to about a 6.5 point decline at the open with premium factored in.
Some type of ultra short term pull-back is certainly no surprise and actually will be a good litmus test as to exactly where the market stands over the very short term.
A fade of the lower open is always an option and perhaps with the short term model indicating a buy weakness mode may be just what the doctor ordered. Of course this decision will have to be made in real time, but it is always good to try and get a feel for where that first trade might come from.
I posted the Pivot Points for today last night, so keep those handy for the trading this morning.
I will also be posting the opening range for those of you who like to trade this high probability, short duration trade.
The activity early in the market is going to make a strong determination as to how long I trade today as I try and not get involved in dead markets much like we saw yesterday and the probability model leans just this way, towards a very slow session.
Good Luck To Everyone Today and Let's See What We Can Get Our Hands On!!
Thursday, December 27, 2007
SLOW TRADE WILL CUT THE DAY SHORT
PROBABILITY STUDY INDICATES A POTENTIAL TIGHT 4-8 POINT RANGE FOR TOMORROW.
I DO ANTICIPATE TRADING TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD WE GET TRAPPED IN A NARROW HOLIDAY LOW VOLUME TRADING RANGE THEN I WILL CUT THE DAY SHORT AND AWAIT A PICK UP IN VOLATILITY.
I DO ANTICIPATE TRADING TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD WE GET TRAPPED IN A NARROW HOLIDAY LOW VOLUME TRADING RANGE THEN I WILL CUT THE DAY SHORT AND AWAIT A PICK UP IN VOLATILITY.
PIVOT POINTS FOR 12/27/2007
PIVOT POINTS
************************************************
PIVOT
1494.90
****************************************************
R1 1498.26, 1501.61, 1503.58, 1505.55, 1510.88, 1516.20, 1521.53, 1526.85
***************************************************************************
S1 1492.93, 1490.96, 1487.61, 1484.25, 1478.93, 1473.60, 1468.28, 1462.95
*********************************************************************
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
DAY TRADING FOR 12/26/07
While I had anticipated trading on the day after Christmas, I have been having such a good time with my wife that I may take tomorrow off as well and resume trading on Thursday.
You will know the morning of 12/26.
If I post a pre-opening comment then you can count on me day trading for the day.
You will know the morning of 12/26.
If I post a pre-opening comment then you can count on me day trading for the day.
PIVOT POINTS FOR TRADING 12/26/07
PIVOT POINT
1492.88
*****************************************************
R1 1497.04, 1501.20, 1503.58, 1505.96, 1512.50, 1519.04, 1525.58, 1532.12
*************************************************
S1 1490.50, 1488.12, 1483.96, 1479.80, 1473.26, 1466.72, 1460.18, 1453.64
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Weekly & Daily Pivots for 12/24/07
PIVOT POINTS FOR TRADING 12/24/07
***********************************************
Weekly Pivots
Pivot - 1468.50
R1 1484.93, 1501.36, 1509.81, 1518.25, 1543.13
S1 1460.06, 1451.61, 1435.18, 1418.75, 1393.88
**************************************************
Daily Pivots
Pivot 1477.68
R1 1484.93, 1492.18, 1496.04, 1499.89, 1511.00
S1 1473.83, 1469.97, 1462.72, 1455.47, 1444.37
****************************************************
P.S. I will not be Day Trading today, but will be back at it WED. December 26th
Friday, December 21, 2007
TOTAL POINTS FOR THE WEEK ENDING 12/21/07
A PRETTY DARN GOOD WEEK WITH 38 S&P 500 POINTS CAPTURED.
THE WEEK ENDED WITH A WHIMPER HOWEVER AS TODAY WE ONLY MANAGED TO
SQUEAK 1 POINT OUT.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD EXHIBIT SOME VERY LIGHT VOLUME, BUT IT IS TIMES LIKE THESE THAT VOLATILITY CAN PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY.
I WILL NOT BE TRADING MONDAY DECEMBER 24TH, BUT I WILL RESUME DAY
TRADING ON WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 26.
LETS SEE IF WE CAN KEEP THE GOOD PERFORMANCE GOING.
THE WEEK ENDED WITH A WHIMPER HOWEVER AS TODAY WE ONLY MANAGED TO
SQUEAK 1 POINT OUT.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD EXHIBIT SOME VERY LIGHT VOLUME, BUT IT IS TIMES LIKE THESE THAT VOLATILITY CAN PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY.
I WILL NOT BE TRADING MONDAY DECEMBER 24TH, BUT I WILL RESUME DAY
TRADING ON WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 26.
LETS SEE IF WE CAN KEEP THE GOOD PERFORMANCE GOING.
HAVE A GREAT WEEK-END AND A SAFE CHRISTMAS!!!
Day Trade Update 2:17pm EST
Long from 1478 on the break-out of the triangle.
I am not going to include this in today's total however as I did not post the trade in real time.
Stop should be at 1480
I am not going to include this in today's total however as I did not post the trade in real time.
Stop should be at 1480
DAY TRADE UPDATE 1:10PM EST
KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEDGE FORMING ON THE 5 MINUTE CHART FOR THE NEXT MAJOR MOVE.
EARLY SESSION DULLS
HONESTLY, THESE ARE THE KINDS OF MARKET ENVIRONMENTS THAT WE NEED TO AVOID AS THE MARKET DOES VIRTUALLY NOTHING BUT USE OUR VALUABLE TIME THAT COULD BE SPENT ON A NEW MODEL DEVELOPMENT OR A NEW CUMULATIVE SHORT TERM SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.
I THINK THAT NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO WALK AWAY FROM THE MARKET FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR AND SEE IF THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY OFFERS ANYTHING WORTH SINKING OUR TEETH INTO.
THERE IS NOTHING WORSE THAN FEELING LIKE YOU HAVE TO TRADE EVEN ON SUB PAR SET-UPS AND IT IS THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WE ARE CURRENTLY BEING SUBJECTED TO.
TRUST ME, I AM ONLY HUMAN AND IF I CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PAINT DRY THEN I KNOW I WILL START FORCING TRADES AND THAT IS A HUGE NO-NO.
I THINK THAT NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO WALK AWAY FROM THE MARKET FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR AND SEE IF THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY OFFERS ANYTHING WORTH SINKING OUR TEETH INTO.
THERE IS NOTHING WORSE THAN FEELING LIKE YOU HAVE TO TRADE EVEN ON SUB PAR SET-UPS AND IT IS THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WE ARE CURRENTLY BEING SUBJECTED TO.
TRUST ME, I AM ONLY HUMAN AND IF I CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PAINT DRY THEN I KNOW I WILL START FORCING TRADES AND THAT IS A HUGE NO-NO.
DAY TRADE UPDATE 10:39AM est
WE KNOW WHAT THESE SMALL QUIET PRICE RANGES LEAD TO, WE JUST DON'T HAVE
A DIRECTION OF THE MOVE.
SO LOOK TO TRADE THE SIDE THAT HAS THE FIRST PICK UP IN SIZE AND RANGE
A DIRECTION OF THE MOVE.
SO LOOK TO TRADE THE SIDE THAT HAS THE FIRST PICK UP IN SIZE AND RANGE
Day Trade Update 10:22am EST
Move stop to Break-Even at 1479 as the price action out of this triangle does not look strong at all.
OPENING RANGE NUMBERS
HERE ARE THE OPENING RANGE NUMBERS TO TRADE A BREAKOUT ON EITHER SIDE.
BELOW 1463.19 SELL SHORT
ABOVE 1477.60 - BUY LONG
BELOW 1463.19 SELL SHORT
ABOVE 1477.60 - BUY LONG
Day Trade Update 9:46am EST
Lets watch the action up by the next pivot at 1477.76 for a possible short
PRE-OPENING COMMENT - 12/21/2007
Globex futures were up strong overnight and added about 2 points more after
the economic news was released.
As of 9:02 am EST the S&P 500 futures are up 15.5 points when premium is factored in, so needless to say we should anticipate a sharply higher open.
The day to day sequencing is currently in the acceleration mode so we remain in the buy weakness mode for the bulk of our day trading.
This does not mean that short sales are out of the question. It simply implies that the short side will have to be close to twice as convincing an argument in order to take the trade.
I will be posting the Opening Range Breakout Numbers as soon as they are available.
Some key numbers to keep an eye on today in the Cash S&P 500 are 1465.36, 1467.98 and 1492.07.
I am curious to see if today finally brings the volatility of options and futures expiration that usually we see on the Wednesday before but failed to materialize this time. If the volatility comes today, then we may be presented with some great opportunities.
Good Luck Today and Just A Reminder.....
This will be my last day trading session until the day after Christmas.
the economic news was released.
As of 9:02 am EST the S&P 500 futures are up 15.5 points when premium is factored in, so needless to say we should anticipate a sharply higher open.
The day to day sequencing is currently in the acceleration mode so we remain in the buy weakness mode for the bulk of our day trading.
This does not mean that short sales are out of the question. It simply implies that the short side will have to be close to twice as convincing an argument in order to take the trade.
I will be posting the Opening Range Breakout Numbers as soon as they are available.
Some key numbers to keep an eye on today in the Cash S&P 500 are 1465.36, 1467.98 and 1492.07.
I am curious to see if today finally brings the volatility of options and futures expiration that usually we see on the Wednesday before but failed to materialize this time. If the volatility comes today, then we may be presented with some great opportunities.
Good Luck Today and Just A Reminder.....
This will be my last day trading session until the day after Christmas.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
PIVOT POINTS FOR 12/21/2007
PIVOT POINT - 1456.29
**********************************************
RESISTANCE - 1460.83, 1465.36, 1467.98, 1470.60, 1477.76, 1484.91, 1492.07, 1499.22
***********************************************
SUPPORT - 1453.67, 1451.05, 1446.52, 1441.98, 1434.83, 1427.67, 1420.52, 1413.36
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